Bonds are quietly pricing the Hormuz risk premium. Equity markets are at all-time highs. Both cannot be right. One of them is trading on hope.
ZTrader.AI · Macro Research · Restricted Circulation June 2, 2026 Strategic Macro Geopolitics & Markets Iran Is Playing Trump. Bonds are quietly pricing the Hormuz risk premium. Equity markets are at all-time highs. Both cannot be right. One of them is trading on hope. Dorian · ZTrader.AI Research · June 2, 2026 ZTrader.AI Research · June 2026 ZTRADER.AI A month ago I told clients that Iran was not negotiating. It was performing negotiation — and there is a structural difference between the two that matters enormously for how you position. The difference is this: a party that negotiates is constrained by outcome. A party that performs negotiation is constrained only by the cost of maintaining the performance. Iran's cost structure, given the asymmetric reputational gains from toying with American credibili
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