Bonds are quietly pricing the Hormuz risk premium. Equity markets are at all-time highs. Both cannot be right. One of them is trading on hope.
ZTrader.AI · Macro Research · Restricted Circulation June 2, 2026 Strategic Macro Geopolitics & Markets Iran Is Playing Trump. Bonds are quietly pricing the Hormuz risk premium. Equity markets are at all-time highs. Both cannot be right. One of them is trading on hope. Dorian · ZTrader.AI Research · June 2, 2026 ZTrader.AI Research · June 2026 ZTRADER.AI A month ago I told clients that Iran was not negotiating. It was performing negotiation — and there is a structural difference between the two that matters enormously for how you position. The difference is this: a party that negotiates is constrained by outcome. A party that performs negotiation is constrained only by the cost of maintaining the performance. Iran's cost structure, given the asymmetric reputational gains from toying with American credibility and the domestic political economy of ceasefire theater, made the performance rational almost indefinitely. The trap was set. Trump and Netanyah u walked into it. The bond market is now, slowly, beginning to admit this. Equity markets are still staring at the horizon waiting for the deal headline
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