Heres why October's Fed Meeting is in absolute chaos
TL;DR (Summary) 1. This was a defensive easing, not a victory lap. The Fed cut to 3.75–4.00%, citing “uncertain outlook,” “labor market cooling,” and “data gaps.” It wasn’t a celebration of victory over inflation; it was a precautionary slowdown—avoiding a crash in the fog. 2. The FOMC decision is split, and not just mildly. One camp wants deeper cuts, another wants none, and Powell sits awkwardly in the middle. This kind of directional division guarantees volatility at every meeting going forward. 3. No new dot plot or SEP this round. Markets are forced to extrapolate from September’s guidance—“maybe one more cut this year, but no promises.” October’s tone simply magnified the phrase “maintain optionality.” 4. The Fed even slowed (if not paused) balance sheet runoff, which amplifies the dovish impact of the 25bp cut. The full pricing of that won’t show up until the funding markets diges
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